Economic/Mortgage Interest Rate Update
February 21, 2010
Last week saw fixed mortgage interest rates increase for the 2nd week in a row......is it a trend or an aberration? That is anybody's guess but there seems to be a growing consensus among economists and veteran market watchers that interest rates are likely to continue on a slow upward trend as the economic recovery tries to gain footing. The 30 yr fixed conventional conforming rate now stands at 5.00% ( APR 5.12% ) which is an increase of 1/8th% over the previous Friday. The increase came in part on the strong performance by the Dow, strong mfg data, and a jump in an important inflation measurement ( the PPI ). In addition, the Fed raised the discount rate .25% during the week to .75%. The discount rate is the charge by the Fed to member banks for loans as compared to the Fed Funds rate ( much more publicized and the bank to bank overnight lending rate ) which remained unchanged at a floating range of 0% to .25%.
As for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it posted its second weekly gain to finish up 303 points for the week at a level of 10,402. The increase can be attributed in part to stronger manufacturing indicators announced for the month ( see below ).
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PAST WEEK:
1.) MANUFACTURING: Both the NY State Empire index and the Philadelphia Fed index showed strong gains for the month; the Empire index has now been positive every month since last summer
2.) INFLATION: the Producer Price index ( PPI ) took a surprising 1.4% jump for January when an increase of just .8% had been expected; on the other hand, the Consumer Price index ( CPI ) was more in line with expectations as it increased .2% for the month vs expectations of a .3% increase; over the past 12 months the CPI has registered a very tame 2.7% increase
3.) LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS: the January index was up .3% and represented the 10th consecutive monthly gain; however, it was off from the recent previous monthly gains of 1% or more for both Nov and Dec
4.) HOUSING CONSTRUCTION: Housing Starts for Jan were up slightly from Dec to an annualized level of 591,000....a monthly increase of 34,000
5.) EMPLOYMENT: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims surprised as they were expected to decline; instead, they rose by 31,000 to a level of 473,000 from previous week
NEXT WEEK: The coming week will be loaded with economic indicator announcements along with several speaking engagements by board members of the Fed. Headlining the economic indicators will be: 2 consumer confidence gauges, the Chicago PMI, Durable Goods Orders, new and existing home sales, and a revised 4th qtr GDP figure.
Mortgage Interest Rates*
Rates as of February 21, 2010:
Term Conforming APR Payment/$1,000 Jumbo APR Payment/ $1,000
30 Yr Fixed Conventional 360 5.005 % 5.12 % $5.37 5.875% 6.01% $5.92
15 Yr Fixed Conventional 180 4.25 % 4.29% $7.52 6.25 % 5.84% $8.24
30 Yr Fixed FHA 360 4.875 % 5.53% $5.29 N/A N/A $0.00
Jumbo 5/1 ARM 360 N/A N/A $0.00 4.75% 3.82% $5.22
High Balance Conforming 360 5.125% 5.25% $5.44 N/A N/A $0.00
*Rates are subject to change due to market fluctuations and borrower's eligibility.
The Conforming rates are for a $250K purchase money loan, 80% LTV, and 25 day lock. The Jumbo rates and High Balance Conforming rates are for a $500K purchase money loan, 80% LTV, and 25 day lock. And each loan type assumes owner-occupancy, escrow for tax/insurance, and a mid credit score of >=740. The FHA rate is based on a $250K purchase money loan ( subject to FHA county limits ranging from $271K to $625.5K ) and is for a 96.50% LTV, 25 day lock and mid credit score of >=740.
Courtesy of:
Michael W. Gleason
Senior Mortgage Banker
Pinnacle Mortgage Group, Inc.
Phone: (877)716-9006 883
Fax: (720)975-1172
mgleason@pinnacle-mortgage.com
www.pinnacle-mortgage.com/mikegleason